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Baltimore Ravens 2010 Season Preview

Football Betting Lines

08/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first two years of the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era have shown that the Baltimore Ravens have found the right combination at head coach and quarterback. The 2010 season will reveal whether or not the team has assembled the necessary supporting cast to soar to even greater heights.

Back-to-back playoff appearances and three postseason wins over the past two seasons had already generated lofty expectations for this year's Ravens, who'll return all but one starter from a group that delivered nine regular- season victories and reached the Divisional Round of the 2009 AFC Playoffs. But when general manager Ozzie Newsome swung a trade to land standout wide receiver Anquan Boldin in March, the stakes were raised even higher.

Boldin should give Baltimore what it's been lacking for seemingly forever, a quality complement to the remarkably steady Derrick Mason at the wideout spot. With the addition of the physical three-time Pro Bowl honoree and veteran speedster Donte' Stallworth, along with the emergence of third-year pro Ray Rice into an elite all-around running back and Flacco's continued progress as a passer, the Ravens now field what could be one of the more balanced and dangerous offenses the league has to offer.

Baltimore's calling card has always come on the defensive end, however, and the 2009 squad continued the Ravens' longstanding tradition of excellence by ranking among the NFL's best in virtually every major category. The unit is getting a bit long in the tooth at several positions, but Newsome addressed those concerns by overseeing another potentially fruitful draft that garnered University of Texas outside linebacker Sergio Kindle and mammoth Alabama nose tackle Terrence Cody with the team's top two picks.

Kindle, considered one of the top available pass rushers among this year's college crop, suffered a fractured skull in an accident at a friend's home just prior to training camp, however, putting the rookie in jeopardy of missing the upcoming season. His injury was one of several bad breaks the Ravens endured over the summer, as perennial All-Pro safety Ed Reed may be sidelined until mid-October after undergoing hip surgery in the spring and Domonique Foxworth, Baltimore's best cover cornerback, is out for the year after tearing his ACL during the early stages of camp.

Foxworth's injury adds further anxiety to an already worrisome position, with fellow corners Lardarius Webb and Fabian Washington both coming off ACL tears that cut short their 2009 campaigns.

Those health issues in the secondary aside, Baltimore still finds itself on the short list of preseason favorites to represent the AFC in this year's Super Bowl. For those dreams to be realized, however, the Ravens will likely need a bounce-back season out of pass-rusher extraordinaire Terrell Suggs and for Flacco to take another big step forward as the triggerman of an offense that has the makings of being something special.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2010 edition of the Baltimore Ravens, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2009 RECORD: 9-7 (t2nd, AFC North)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2009, lost to Indianapolis, 20-3, in AFC Divisional Playoff

COACH (RECORD): John Harbaugh (20-12 in two seasons with Ravens, 20-12 overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Cam Cameron

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Greg Mattison

OFFENSIVE STAR: Ray Rice, RB (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 TD)

DEFENSIVE STAR: Ray Lewis, LB (134 tackles, 3 sacks)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 5th rushing, 18th passing, 9th scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 5th rushing, t8th passing, 3rd scoring

KEY ADDITIONS: QB Marc Bulger (from Rams), WR Anquan Boldin (from Cardinals), WR Donte' Stallworth (from Browns), TE Ed Dickson (3rd Round, Oregon), TE Dennis Pitta (4th Round, BYU), DL Cory Redding (from Seahawks), DT Terrence Cody (2nd Round, Alabama), DE/OLB Sergio Kindle (2nd Round, Texas), CB Walt Harris (from 49ers), CB Doug Dutch (from Redskins), S Ken Hamlin (from Cowboys), K Shayne Graham (from Bengals)

KEY DEPARTURES: QB John Beck (to Redskins), WR David Tyree (retired), WR Kelley Washington (to Eagles), TE L.J. Smith (not tendered), TE Quinn Sypniewski (released), T Adam Terry (to Colts), DT Justin Bannan (to Broncos), DL Dwan Edwards (to Bills), CB Corey Ivy (not tendered), CB Samari Rolle (retired), CB Frank Walker (not tendered)

QB: After displaying impressive poise in leading Baltimore to the AFC Championship Game as a rookie in 2008, Flacco improved both his passing and decision-making skills during an even better second season. The rocket-armed 25-year-old's 3,613 yards and 21 touchdowns were the most by a Ravens quarterback since Vinny Testaverde in 1996, and could surpass those numbers with the offense's new weapons. The Ravens also brought in some experienced insurance at the position with the offseason signing of ex-Ram Marc Bulger (1469 passing yards, 5 TD, 6 INT), a player with 95 starts and two Pro Bowls to his credit. His addition pushes last year's backup, former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith, down to the No. 3 spot in the pecking order.

RB: With the dynamic Rice flanked by three-time 1,000-yard rusher Willis McGahee (544 rushing yards, 15 receptions, 14 total TD) and versatile fullback Le'Ron McClain (180 rushing yards, 2 TD, 21 receptions), the Ravens sport a backfield that can rival any other team's in terms of overall depth. There's little question as to who's the leader of the pack, however. Rice (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 total TD) flourished in his first opportunity as an every-down player, topping all NFL backs in catches and receiving yards (702) and trailing only Tennessee's Chris Johnson in yards from scrimmage. McGahee was very effective in a short-yardage role, scoring a team-best 12 touchdowns last year, while the 260-pound McClain is a quality lead blocker who can also handle the ball if called upon, as evidenced by the 902 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns he produced in 2008.

WR/TE: What had been a longtime weakness now figures to be a strength with Boldin (84 receptions, 1024 yards, 4 TD) lining up opposite the reliable Mason (73 receptions, 1028 yards, 7 TD), and the receiving corps would become even more formidable if Stallworth can shake off the rust after missing all of last season because of a league suspension and provide a needed field-stretching presence. Though prone to injuries at times, Boldin's toughness and ability to churn out yards after the catch make the former Cardinal a major upgrade over 2009 starter Mark Clayton (34 receptions, 2 TD), who now finds himself on the roster bubble alongside perpetual underachiever Demetrius Williams (8 receptions, 1 TD). Mason's third straight 1,000-yard season at age 35 showed the 14th-year vet can still be a factor, and tight end Todd Heap (53 receptions, 6 TD) put forth a nice rebound in 2009 after experiencing a drop in production over the two previous years. The two-time Pro Bowl performer is now 30 and nearing the end of an expensive contract, so the Ravens drafted two possible successors this spring in Oregon's Ed Dickson (3rd Round) and BYU's Dennis Pitta (4th Round). Ex-Utah wideout David Reed was selected in the fifth round and will be in mix for a roster spot, as will holdover Marcus Smith, a special-teams standout who missed all of last year with a knee injury.

OL: The Ravens have ranked in the top five in rushing offense in each of Harbaugh's two seasons as head coach, due in no small part to the work of a high-caliber front line that's both skilled and plays with a collective mean streak. All five regulars return to the fold, although the team plans to have tackles Michael Oher and Jared Gaither switch positions in an effort to maximize the strengths of both players. Oher, best known as the subject of the book and hit movie "The Blind Side", displayed elite athleticism during a sensational rookie year at right tackle, and the 2009 first-round pick's tremendous talent should serve him well as Flacco's main protector. The 6- foot-9, 340-pound Gaither is a massive mauler who'll combine with scrappy guard Marshal Yanda to form a bruising right side. Left guard Ben Grubbs has been a stalwart since entering the league as a first-rounder in 2007, while six-time Pro Bowl center Matt Birk remains one of the game's premier pivots as he begins his 13th season. Chris Chester, a 13-game starter a year ago, gives Baltimore a capable fill-in along the interior, while the club has been pleased with the development of third-year man Oniel Cousins as a swing tackle.

DL: Not only do the Ravens excel at running the football, they're among the best at preventing the opposition at doing so as well. A stout three-man front anchored by tackles Haloti Ngata (35 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Kelly Gregg (63 tackles, 3 sacks) was a big reason why Baltimore allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per rush attempt last season, and that number could go even lower this year now that the 350-pound Cody, an immovable force in the middle of Alabama's championship defense this past fall, is around to keep the 33-year- old Gregg fresh at the nose. The team will have to replace starting end Dwan Edwards, a free-agent departure to Buffalo, but believes it has found a serviceable replacement in eighth-year pro Cory Redding (20 tackles, 2 sacks with Seattle). The former Seahawk will rotate with 35-year-old Trevor Pryce (31 tackles), who led the Ravens with 6 1/2 sacks last year and is best suited to a situational role. Baltimore also hopes to receive a greater impact out of 2009 second-round pick Paul Kruger (11 tackles, 1 INT) as a pass-rushing down lineman.

LB: Discussion of the Baltimore linebackers always begins with the incomparable Ray Lewis (134 tackles, 3 sacks), the unquestioned heart and soul of the team's vaunted defense who continues to play at a world-class level despite advancing age. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year was named to his 11th Pro Bowl and eighth All-Pro First Team in 2009 after once again topping the Ravens in tackles and lending invaluable leadership. Suggs (59 tackles) has been to three Pro Bowls in a seven-year span, but the accomplished outside rusher managed a career-low 4 1/2 sacks last season after reporting to camp out of shape. He's reportedly shown up leaner and quicker this summer and appears to be a good bet to reclaim his previous disruptive form. The unheralded Jarret Johnson (50 tackles, 6 sacks), another key contributor to Baltimore's top-notch run defense, returns opposite Suggs on the outside, with sophomore Dannell Ellerbe (41 tackles, 1 sack) and third- year men Tavares Gooden (47 tackles) and Jameel McClain (30 tackles) all competing to be Lewis' main counterpart inside.

DB: Baltimore's biggest questions clearly lie in the secondary, and especially at the cornerback spot with Foxworth (53 tackles, 4 INT, 16 PD) done for the year and the promising Webb (35 tackles, 1 sack) uncertain to be ready for the start of the season. Washington (37 tackles) has been progressing well from his knee surgery and should line up as one of the Week 1 starters, with competent nickel back Chris Carr (44 tackles, 2 INT, 1.5 sacks) slated to see plenty of action as well at the thin position. Safety doesn't seem to be as much of an issue even though the Ravens will miss the presence of Reed (50 tackles, 3 INT), one of the league's all-time great defensive playmakers, for at least the early stages of the season. Tom Zbikowski (29 tackles, 2 INT) was more than adequate when filling in for an ailing Reed during a four-game stretch late last year, and the team signed former Cowboys starter Ken Hamlin (52 tackles) in June to provide further protection. Dawan Landry (89 tackles, 4 INT) is locked in as a starter on the strong side after turning in a productive season and making a successful return from a serious neck injury sustained in 2008.

SPECIAL TEAMS: The Ravens made one notable change in this area, bringing in veteran kicker Shayne Graham (23-28 FG with Cincinnati) as a free agent. The 32-year-old, whose 85.2 percent field goal percentage is fifth-best in NFL history, is favored to beat out Billy Cundiff after the incumbent went a shaky 12-of-17 on three-point attempts upon being signed midway through last season. Jalen Parmele has the inside track to serve as the primary kickoff returner and third tailback after averaging an impressive 31.4 yards during a late-year audition, with Carr (8.2 avg.) back to handle those duties on punts. Sam Koch (43.5 avg.) was re-signed after putting forth another stable season as the punter, and the coverage units should remain a strength due to Harbaugh, a former special teams coordinator with the Eagles, placing a heavy emphasis on that aspect.

PROGNOSIS: The Ravens entered camp considered by many insiders to be the team to beat among the AFC North crop, but that optimism may be tempered somewhat with the injuries they've incurred on defense. That still shouldn't stop Baltimore from doing what it does best -- pounding the ball on offense and stopping the run -- and that alone should translate into its share of wins. Factor in the added playmakers at receiver, Flacco's continued evolution under center and strong leadership within the locker room, and the Ravens appear fully capable of eclipsing last year's nine-win regular-season total and making a deep playoff run.


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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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