Iowa is in desperate need of a victory, as it has suffered three consecutive
defeats to fall to 8-15 overall and 2-8 in league play. The Hawkeyes were most
recently in action on Wednesday when they struggled at the offensive end in a
57-49 loss to Illinois. Iowa has played six true road games so far this
season, and the team has lost five of those tilts.
Ohio State has been perfect at home this season, as it has won all 14 of the
games it has played in Columbus. The Buckeyes are 17-6 overall, including 7-3
in Big Ten action, and they have won their last three outings. On Wednesday,
Ohio State defeated Penn State in a 75-62 final.
Iowa owns a 75-71 series lead over Ohio State, but the Buckeyes edged the
Hawkeyes by a score of 65-57 final on January 27th.
The Hawkeyes have been held to fewer than 50 points in back-to-back affairs,
and a lack of offensive production has plagued the team all season. Through 23
games, Iowa is scoring a mere 61.2 ppg on 41.4 percent shooting from the
floor. Defensively, the club is permitting 64.8 ppg to foes. Matt Gatens is
scoring 12.1 ppg on 36.7 percent shooting from the field, so his team-leading
output would be better if not for a lack of efficiency. Anthony Tucker is the
only double-digit scorer in the fold for the Hawkeyes, as he is netting 11.9
ppg. In the loss to Illinois last time out, Iowa connected on only 29.6
percent of its field goal attempts.
Evan Turner is scoring 18.9 ppg on 55.9 percent shooting from the floor this
season to pace Ohio State. More than just a scorer, Turner is pulling down 9.5
rpg to go along with 97 assists. William Buford provides 14.2 ppg for the
Buckeyes, while both David Lighty and Jon Diebler add 12.9 ppg. The team is
generating 74.9 ppg on 50 percent shooting from the floor, while opponents are
being limited to 61.0 ppg on 41 percent field goal efficiency. Against Penn State last time out, Ohio State shot 50 percent from the field and earned an
18-12 edge in points from the foul line. Turner posted 27 points, 10 rebounds
and six assists for the Buckeyes, while Buford added 19 points and five
assists.
Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.